Emissions impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle deployment on the U.S. western grid

The constantly evolving western grid of the United States is characterized by complex generation dispatch based on economics, contractual agreements, and regulations. The future electrification of transportation via plug-in electric vehicles calls for an energy and emissions analysis of electric vehicle (EV) penetration scenarios based on realistic resource dispatch. A resource dispatch and emissions model for the western grid is developed and a baseline case is modeled. Results are compared with recorded data to validate the model and provide confidence in the analysis of EV-grid interaction outlooks. A modeled dispatch approach, based on a correlation between actual historical dispatch and system load data, is exercised to show the impacts (emission intensity, temporally resolved load demand) associated with EV penetration on the western grid. The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and selected charging scenarios are the focus for the analysis. The results reveal that (1) a correlation between system load and resource group capacity factor can be utilized in dispatch modeling, (2) the hourly emissions intensity of the grid depends upon PHEV fleet charge scenario, (3) emissions can be reduced for some species depending on the PHEV fleet charge scenario, and (4) the hourly model resolution of changes in grid emissions intensity can be used to decide on preferred fleet-wide charge profiles.