کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
143179 163185 2007 6 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Ensemble forecasting of species distributions
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Ensemble forecasting of species distributions
چکیده انگلیسی

Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: - Volume 22, Issue 1, January 2007, Pages 42–47
نویسندگان
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