A method of probabilistic analysis for steel pipeline with correlated corrosion defects

A method of probabilistic analysis is presented to consider effect of correlation of corrosion defects on steel pipeline failure. Failure probability of pipeline with correlated corrosion defects is modeled and compared with results from conventional method. The results showed that assumption of independent corrosion defects will lead to conservative results. The calculated results are within Ditlevsen bimodal bounds. This indicates the validity and feasibility of the proposed method. The combined effect of both the model sensitivity of prediction to variables and the uncertainty of variables should be taken into account in sensitivity analysis.