Monitoring nationwide ensembles of PV generators: Limitations and uncertainties. The case of the UK

• We identify typical errors affecting monitoring of large sets of small PV systems.
• Largest errors are introduced by modeled horizontal irradiance and array’s azimuth.
• Errors on typical UK system’s performance ratio and tilted irradiance are both ∼6%.
• Long term: errors on orientation affect PR prediction; irradiance errors average out.
• Performance ratio in UK is higher (lower) in summer (winter) than Continental Europe.

Sources of error in the performance of large ensembles of spatially distributed photovoltaic generators are investigated and reported. Errors are propagated to estimate uncertainty in modeled global tilted radiation and performance ratio (PR)(PR) for the typical UK generator.Uncertainties in generators’ azimuth and elevation lead to typical monthly errors of 4% and 1% on global tilted radiation and PRPR. Interpolation of global horizontal irradiance is affected by an average 5% monthly error and the conversion to the inclined plane leads to an estimated error from 7% to 8% on tilted radiation and PRPR. This prediction has been verified against a set of twenty pyranometers on the plane of the array deployed across the UK, which gauge a 6% monthly error. Mutual cancellations lower this value to 4% for annual periodicity. The estimated monthly error on interpolated global horizontal irradiance is half of the 10% error affecting widely-used Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS), which experiences larger errors also on the inclined plane. The assessed uncertainties impact the net present value of the investment required for deploying a PV generator; such an impact has been quantified.The yearly PRPR for the typical UK microgenerator is 84%, a value 8% (6%) higher than recent studies in France (Belgium). In winter, the typical UK performance ratio drops to 75%, because of an increase in shading. Summer performance ratio remains greater than the yearly mean, possibly reflecting the relatively short intervals during which direct sunlight heats the PV modules and the windy conditions over the British Isles. The monthly/annual error affecting the typical individual generator virtually cancel out for the whole national ensemble.