Modeling and evaluating proliferation resistance of nuclear energy systems for strategy switching proliferation

This paper reports a Markov model based approach to systematically evaluating the proliferation resistance (PR) of nuclear energy systems (NESs). The focus of the study is on the development of the Markov models for a class of complex PR scenarios, i.e., mixed covert/overt strategy switching proliferation, for NESs with two modes of material flow, batch and continuous. In particular, a set of diversion and/or breakout scenarios and covert/overt misuse scenarios are studied in detail for an Example Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR) system. Both probabilistic and deterministic PR measures are calculated using a software tool that implements the proposed approach and can be used to quantitatively compare proliferation resistant characteristics of different scenarios for a given NES, according to the computed PR measures.

► Sensitivity analysis is carried out for the model and physical input parameters.
► Interphase drag has minor effect on the dryout heat flux (DHF) in 1D configuration.
► Model calibration on pressure drop experiments fails to improve prediction of DHF.
► Calibrated classical model provides the best agreement with DHF data from 1D tests.
► Further validation of drag models requires data from 2D and 3D experiments on DHF.