Monte Carlo estimation of radionuclide release at a repository scale

Prediction of radionuclide release is a central issue in the performance assessment of nuclear waste repositories. This requires modeling of the radionuclide migration processes through the repository barriers, accounting for the related uncertainties. The present paper illustrates a Monte Carlo simulation-based compartment model in which detailed, local-scale modeling feeds a global-scale analysis of the repository, at reasonable computational expenses. An application to a realistic case study is presented to verify the feasibility of the approach.