Probability of pipe breakage regarding transient flow in a small pipe network

A reliability model was developed for the calculations of the probability of pipe breakage associated with transient effect. The statistical distribution for the maximum pressure wave heights was determined from the results of 168 transient analyses. It was found that the statistical distribution for internal pressure among the random variables of reliability function is well matched with the Gumbel distribution. The probability of pipe breakage in a small pipe network was calculated according to pipe diameter, thickness, allowable stress, and internal pressure. From the results, it was found that transient effect significantly increases the probability of pipe breakage. Using the present reliability model, it could be possible to find a pipe that contains the high probability of pipe breakage in a water distribution system. If the reliability model developed in the present study is applied for the design, a safe design will be accomplished. Furthermore, it can be effectively used for the management and maintenance of a water distribution system.