CO2 emissions abatement in the Nordic carbon-intensive industry - An end-game in sight?

Analysing different future trajectories of technological developments we assess the prospects for Nordic carbon-intensive industries to significantly reduce direct CO2 emissions in the period 2010-2050. This analysis covers petroleum refining, integrated iron and steel production, and cement manufacturing in the four largest Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Our results show that the implementation of currently available abatement measures will not be enough to meet the ambitious emissions reduction targets envisaged for the Year 2050. We show how an extensive deployment of CCS (carbon capture and storage) could result in emissions reductions that are in line with such targets. However, large-scale introduction of CCS would come at a significant price in terms of energy use and the associated flows of captured CO2 would place high requirements on timely planning of infrastructure for the transportation and storage of CO2. Further the assessment highlights the importance of, especially in the absence of successful deployment of CO2 capture, encouraging increased use of biomass in the cement and integrated iron and steel industries, and of promoting the utilisation of alternative raw materials in cement manufacturing to complement efforts to improve energy efficiency.