Modelling future uptake of distributed energy resources under alternative tariff structures

• Diffusion choice model for solar PV and battery storage uptake.
• Case study of residential housing stock in Townsville.
• Forecasted uptake of battery storage between 3% and 5% of households by 2025.
• About one percent of households go off-grid at 2025 depending on price tariff.

Current residential price tariff structures in Australia, which are predominately based on a flat daily supply charge combined with a per kWh electricity charge, create a distortion to the electricity consumption pattern, leading to larger afternoon and evening peak demands across the networks. Battery storage connected to solar PV (photovoltaic) array would reduce these effects in the presence of alternative price tariffs that incentivise households to shift load and reduce the peak demand. This challenge is addressed using a choice-diffusion model to forecast PV and battery storage uptake to 2025 for a case study in Townsville, Australia. Sensitivity of uptake is tested for six different price tariffs based on flat, time-of-use and critical-peak-pricing. Uptake of battery storage connected to solar PV ranged between 3% and 5.4% of households at 2025, depending on the price tariff, with the larger PV/battery options being more popular. Percentage of households disconnecting from the grid at 2025 is in the order of one percent depending on the price tariff. A sensitivity analysis showed battery price was a major driver to uptake whilst typical financial subsidies to purchase price have a lower effect.