Determining reserve requirements in DK1 area of Nord Pool using a probabilistic approach

• The uncertainty of load, wind power production, and power plant outages is considered.
• Reserve capacity is scheduled independently of energy.
• Risk is assessed by the loss-of-load probability and the CVaR of the total cost.
• The study case is performed on real data from the DK1 area of Nordpool
• System reliability is increased, while reducing the associated reserve costs.

Allocation of electricity reserves is the main tool for transmission system operators to guarantee a reliable and safe real-time operation of the power system. Traditionally, a deterministic criterion is used to establish the level of reserve. Alternative criteria are given in this paper by using a probabilistic framework where the reserve requirements are computed based on scenarios of wind power forecast error, load forecast errors and power plant outages. Our approach is first motivated by the increasing wind power penetration in power systems worldwide as well as the current market design of the DK1 area of Nord Pool, where reserves are scheduled prior to the closure of the day-ahead market. The risk of the solution under the resulting reserve schedule is controlled by two measures: the LOLP (Loss-of-Load Probability) and the CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk). Results show that during the case study period, the LOLP methodology produces more costly and less reliable reserve schedules, whereas the solution from the CVaR-method increases the safety of the overall system while decreasing the associated reserve costs, with respect to the method currently used by the Danish TSO (Transmission System Operator).