The scenario analysis on CO2 emission mitigation potential in the Turkish electricity sector: 2006–2030

A scenario analysis method based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used for an analysis of reduction of emissions in the electricity sector of Turkey. Business As Usual (BAU) and Mitigation Scenarios address the simulations from different approaches. Each scenario represents a different development path which is possible in Turkey's electricity sector due to various policies. The simulations are applied until the year 2030, while 2006 is set as the base year. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will rise significantly under the Baseline Scenario. In the Mitigation Scenario, electricity-related CO2 emissions grew by 5.8% annually between 2006 and 2030, while electricity output grew at an average of 6.6% per annum in this period. Comparison between the CO2 emissions suggested by the scenarios presents the mitigation potential of the electricity sector. The Mitigation Scenario is characterized by its aggressive greenhouse gas (GHG) control policies and can achieve mitigation ratio of 17.5% over the simulation period. The cumulative CO2 emission reduction between the BAU and Mitigation Scenarios from 2006 to 2030 is 903 million tons. Additionally, CO2 emission intensity has decreased by 18.4% in 2030 compared to 2006.

► Electricity demand in Turkey increases with annual mean growth rate of 7.3% from 2011 to 2030.
► The cumulative CO2 emission reduction in Mitigation Scenario is 903 million tons in the time horizon of the study.
► The average CO2 emission mitigation ratio in the period of 2006–2030 is 17.5%.
► In Mitigation Scenario CO2 emission intensity decreases to 0.398 tCO2/MWh in 2030 from 0.488 tCO2/MWh in 2006.
► There's an abatement of 20.6% CO2 emission intensity in the Mitigation Scenario compared to the Reference Scenario in 2030.