Dilemma between economic development and energy conservation: Energy rebound effect in China

Promoting technological development to improve energy efficiency has been the primary method of energy conservation in China. However, the existence of energy rebound effect will impose negative effects on the final result of energy saving. In this article, we adopt the Malmquist index approach to estimate the contribution of technological progress to economic growth. We also employ Logarithmic mean weight Divisia index (LMDI) to measure the impact of technological improvement on the energy intensity. Based on the above, we set up a model to estimate the technology-based energy rebound effect in China. The results show that, over 1981–2009, energy rebound effect amounts averagely to 53.2%, implying that China cannot simply rely on technical means to reduce energy consumption and emission. Economic instruments should also be applied as supplements to ensure results of energy conservation and emission reduction.

► Two improvements in rebound effect calculation model are proposed.
► The size of energy rebound in Chinese macro-economic level is evaluated.
► Energy rebound effect over 1981–2009 in China is averagely up to 53.2%.
► Chinese policy for energy consumption reduction should focus on energy pricing reform.