Swedish biomass strategies to reduce CO2 emission and oil use in an EU context

Swedish energy strategies for transportation, space heating and pulp industries were evaluated with a focus on bioenergy use. The aims were to 1) study trade-offs between reductions in CO2 emission and oil use and between Swedish reductions and EU reductions, 2) compare the potential contributions of individual reduction measures, 3) quantify the total CO2 emission and oil use reduction potentials. Swedish energy efficiency measures reduced EU CO2 emission by 45–59 Mt CO2/a, at current biomass use and constant oil use. Doubling Swedish bioenergy use yielded an additional 40 Mt CO2/a reduction. Oil use could be reduced, but 36–81 kt of reductions in CO2 emission would be lost per PJ of oil use reduction. Swedish fossil fuel use within the studied sectors could be nearly eliminated. The expansion of district heating and cogeneration of heat with a high electricity yield were important measures. Plug-in hybrid electric cars reduced CO2 emission compared with conventional cars, and the difference was larger with increasing oil scarcity. The introduction of black liquor gasification in pulp mills also gave large CO2 emission reduction. Motor fuel from biomass was found to be a feasible option when coal is the marginal fuel for fossil motor fuel production.

► Bioenergy is compared to optimized fossil fuel use under different oil availability constraints.
► Swedish strategies are evaluated with respect to CO2 emission and oil use reduction within Sweden and the EU.
► Efficiency measures give the largest reductions but increased bioenergy use is also important.
► District heating expansion, high electricity yield CHP, increased vehicle efficiency and PHEVs are important options.
► The studied sectors in Sweden could become nearly fossil-fuel free and yield an energy surplus.