Characterizing uncertainty in groundwater-source heating and cooling projects in Manitoba, Canada

Uncertainty of performance is an obstacle for greater uptake of many renewable energy technologies that depend on local environmental conditions. The ability to successfully complete involving a groundwater-source heat pumps or other projects using groundwater for heating and cooling is highly dependent on local geological conditions. Use of geostatistical information on aquifer properties and analysis of previous projects in a region show some promise in assessing the risk in these projects. An example of a possible methodology is given here for open loop heat pump and other groundwater-source heating and cooling projects in Manitoba, Canada. Stochastic modeling of open loop heat pumps was able to explain the number of wells unable to produce or inject sufficient water from the aquifer, demonstrating the efficacy of this technique. This type of approach also provides insight into the viability of possible mitigation options to successfully finish projects where conditions would not have supported the original design of such systems.

► Local environmental variability can be a barrier to uptake of renewable energy.
► Geological conditions are difficult to assess a priori in geothermal projects.
► Results of previous projects and other geological data can aid in estimating risk.
► Mitigation measures need to be understood to facilitate decision making.