Forecasting the diffusion of wind power in Pakistan

About half of the Pakistan’s population has no access to electricity and per capita consumption is one of the lowest in the world. The country is facing severe energy crisis due to shortage of electricity and gas supply. About two-third of the total electricity is generated from fossil fuels. Pakistan heavily depends on imported energy due to limited indigenous reserves and production of oil. The production, transportation, transformation and consumption of fossil fuels also adversely affect the quality of the environment due to indiscriminate release of toxic substances. This shows that Pakistan must develop alternate, indigenous and environment friendly energy resources, like wind energy, to face these challenges. This paper presents the market penetration forecasts of wind power in Pakistan under different policy scenarios. The diffusion of wind power is forecasted using logistic model and analogous approach. The study concludes that about 42, 58 and 73% of the country’s total technical potential of wind power generation could be exploited by the year 2030 under SS, MS and OS scenarios respectively. The development and utilization of wind power would reduce the pressure on oil imports, protect the environment from pollution and improve the socio-economic conditions of the people of Pakistan.

► Market penetration forecasts of wind power in Pakistan are carried out using logistic model and analogous approach.
► Values of model parameters are estimated by regression of the past time series data of wind farms in India.
► About 40%–70% of wind power potential could be exploited by the year 2030 under various scenarios.
► These plants would generate about 1–2 times the current electricity generation from conventional power plants in the country.