Theoretical exploration of carbon emissions dynamic evolutionary system and evolutionary scenario analysis

Based on the status quo of carbon emissions in China, this paper introduces dynamic evolutionary factors, advance rate, critical time and evolutionary coefficients of carbon emissions, deducing relative theories, such as Change Trends Theorem and Evolutionary Theorem. Least-square method is used to establish the dynamic evolutionary system of carbon emissions. The system predicts carbon emissions by means of nonlinear predictive function and control function, which facilitates carbon policy regulation and the system’s external influence. In addition, this paper studies dynamic evolutionary rules of dynamic evolutionary factors and advance rate of carbon emissions from the angle of dynamic system. Furthermore, the dynamic evolutionary model is introduced and evolutionary scenario analysis is also conducted by modulating evolutionary coefficient and critical time. Four different scenarios of carbon emissions are set quantitatively for evolutionary analysis of China’s carbon emissions. Based on the above observations, carbon emissions of China in 2020, 2030, 2050 under four evolutionary scenarios are predicted. It is proved that the evolutionary scenario analysis in this research is more scientific with good logic.

► We model a new system which predicts carbon emissions.
► We introduce some theories to study evolutionary rule of carbon emissions.
► Four scenarios are set for evolutionary analysis of China’s carbon emissions.
► Beyond-normal energy-saving emission reduction measures need to be adopted.