Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020

This paper investigates the relationship between Turkish aggregate electricity consumption, GDP and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish aggregate electricity demand. To achieve this, an aggregate electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. The results suggest that GDP, electricity prices and a UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) are all important drivers of Turkish electricity demand. The estimated income and price elasticities are found to be 0.17 and −0.11 respectively with the estimated UEDT found to be generally upward sloping (electricity using) but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish aggregate electricity demand will be somewhere between 259 TWh and 368 TWh in 2020.

► Estimated Turkish aggregate electricity demand income and price elasticities of 0.17 and −0.11 respectively.
► Estimated UEDT is found to be upward sloping (energy using) but at a generally decreasing rate.
► Predicted Turkish aggregate electricity demand between 259 and 368 TWh in 2020.