A projection for global CO2 emissions from the industrial sector through 2030 based on activity level and technology changes

In this study, we simulate global CO2 emissions and their reduction potentials in the industrial sector up to the year 2030. Future industrial CO2 emissions depend on changes in both technology and industrial activity. However, earlier bottom-up analyses mainly focused on technology change. In this study, we estimate changes in both technology and industrial activity. We developed a three-part simulation system. The first part is a macro economic model that simulates macro economic indicators, such as GDP and value added by sector. The second part consists of industrial production models that simulate future steel and cement production. The third part is a bottom-up type technology model that estimates future CO2 emissions. Assuming no changes in technology since 2005, we estimate that global CO2 emissions in 2030 increase by 15 GtCO2 from 2005 level. This increase is due to growth in industrial production. Introducing technological reduction options within 100 US$/tCO2 provides a reduction potential of 5.3 GtCO2 compared to the case of no technology changes. As a result, even with large technological reduction potential, global industrial CO2 emissions in 2030 are estimated to be higher as compared to 2005 level because of growth of industrial production.