Prospective national and regional environmental performance: Boundary estimations using a combined data envelopment – stochastic frontier analysis approach

The environmental performance of regions and largest economies of the world – actually, the efficiency of their energy sectors – is estimated for the period 2010–2030 by using forecasted values of main economic indicators. Two essentially different methodologies, data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier analysis, are used to obtain upper and lower boundaries of the environmental efficiency index. Greenhouse gas emission per unit of area is used as a resulting indicator, with GDP, energy consumption, and population forming a background of comparable estimations. The dynamics of the upper and lower boundaries and their average is analyzed. Regions and national economies having low level or negative dynamics of environmental efficiency are determined.