Forecasting the growth of China’s natural gas consumption

The use of natural gas in China is still relatively immature, as gas production only supplies a low percentage of the domestic energy system. In contrast, Chinese economy mainly relies on coal with a 67% share of the total primary energy supply. The environmental impact from this high coal dependence is significant and planners have sought for cleaner energy sources. Natural gas is both cleaner and generally more efficient than coal and gas consumption is rising quickly due to these facts.The growth tendency indicates that natural gas will become an important substitution for coal in some parts of the Chinese primary energy consumption. To quantify this tendency, this paper uses a system dynamics model to create a possible outlook. The results show that the gas consumption in China will continue to increase fast to 89.5 billion cubic meters in 2010; 198.2 billion cubic meters in 2020, before finally reach 340.7 billion cubic meters in 2030.Scenario analysis is used to assess the accuracy of the results. Finally, this paper gives policy suggestions on natural gas exploration and development, infrastructure constructions and technical innovations to promote a sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry.

Research highlights
► This paper forecasts the gas consumption in China with the industry division method for the first. The division shows different growth tendency of gas consumption in different industry fields.
► According to the reviewers’ opinion, the paper indicates that China will have good gas availability in future.
► From the forecast results, the paper gives some reasonable suggestions for the gas industry development.