کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1735724 1016190 2008 6 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Global oil peaking: Responding to the case for ‘abundant supplies of oil’
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Global oil peaking: Responding to the case for ‘abundant supplies of oil’
چکیده انگلیسی

This paper examines aspects of the case against global oil peaking, and in particular sets out to answer a viewpoint that the world can have abundant supplies of oil “for years to come”. Arguments supporting the latter view include: past forecasts of oil shortage have proved incorrect, so current predictions should also be discounted; many modellers depend on Hubbert's analysis but this contained fundamental flaws; new oil supply will result from reserves growth and from the wider deployment of advanced extraction technology; and that the world contains large resources of unconventional oil that can come on-stream if the production of conventional oil declines. These arguments are examined in turn and shown to be incorrect, or to need setting into a broader context. The paper concludes therefore that such arguments cannot be used to rule out calculations that the resource-limited peak in the world's production of conventional oil will occur in the near term. Moreover, peaking of conventional oil is likely to impact the world's total availability of oil where the latter includes non-conventional oil and oil substitutes.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy - Volume 33, Issue 8, August 2008, Pages 1179–1184
نویسندگان
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