کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
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1735985 | 1016201 | 2007 | 20 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
Strategic planning in the electricity supply industry is a complex task due to the multiple and often conflicting objectives of the decision makers, as well as the inherent technical and valuation uncertainties involved. As such, a transparent decision support framework is needed, for guiding information management throughout the decision process, in a way which shapes decision outcomes, and enables confident choices to be made. This paper outlines a methodology for the ranking of power expansion alternatives given multiple objectives and uncertainty, and demonstrates this using the South African electricity supply industry. This methodology uses a value function MCDA approach that is augmented with scenario analysis to yield information relating to both the relative performance and credibility of power expansion alternatives. A portfolio of preferred alternatives is then identified based on performance and confidence criteria. Finally a more detailed analysis of the reduced solution set examines short-term technology investment details alongside attribute performance information, so as to gain insight into the decision problem and relate it back to real life actions.
Journal: Energy - Volume 32, Issue 12, December 2007, Pages 2350–2369