Modelling the future CO2 abatement potentials of energy efficiency and CCS: The case of the Dutch industry

• Sectoral potentials of energy efficiency and CCS are estimated by a bottom-up model.
• Economically viable energy efficiency reduces 25% of Dutch industry's CO2 emissions.
• Reductions can raise to 47% with economically viable CCS in 2040 compared to 1990.
• CCS reduces primary energy efficiency improvement rates from 2% to 1.6% per annum.
• Model estimates first order of CCS and efficiency abatement costs at sector level.

Reaching the long term goals of climate policies requires the implementation of a portfolio of measures. This paper quantifies the potentials of energy efficiency technologies and CO2 capture and storage (CCS) for seven Dutch industry sectors between 2008 and 2040. Economically viable energy efficiency technologies offer carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction potentials of 25 ± 8% in 2040 compared to 1990 levels. Economically viable CCS options can raise the industry's total emission reductions to 39–47%. These potentials require abatement costs above 90 € (Euro) per tonne CO2, but they are still not sufficient to reach European Union's long term emission reduction plans. While economically viable potentials of improving energy efficiency may exist in all sectors (energy efficiency improvements of 2% per annum (p.a.)), attractive CCS potentials exist in the fertilizer, basic metal and refinery sectors with abatement costs estimated at 25–120 €/t CO2 for 2040. Implementing CCS in these sectors would reduce total industry's primary energy efficiency improvement rates from 2% to 1.6% p.a. and would increase total industrial energy use by at least 10%. Reaching higher emission reductions in the Dutch industry will require the implementation of a portfolio of measures including energy and materials efficiency, renewables and CCS.