Broaching CCS into society. Timeline considerations for deployment of CO2 capture and storage linked with the challenge of capacity building

The purpose of this paper is to assess the timeline for capture and storage of carbon dioxide (CCS) by inverting the 450 Scenario of the IEA – especially the Blue Map Scenario – limiting the greenhouse gas emissions by 50–80% by 2050.In this pursuit, the critical stages of a new energy technology have been addressed. The timeline is considered in a global perspective on the basis of available prognoses for fossil fuels – especially coal. Relevant research questions are: (1) what generating capacity is required to meet the global demands, and (2) which capture rate would be realistic and sufficient. In answering these questions, the study employs two empirical “laws” that apply to new energy technology options in the transition and the stabilisation phase. This approach is used to determine the required scale-up rates and to compare efforts and impacts associated with prior experience from successful energy technologies implemented over the past century. Criteria are also suggested for coining CCS technology available and material with regard to commercial power generation.The study reveals some inherent limitations based on the perception that the energy system itself is so huge that it takes time to build the required human and industrial capacity, and to fill the knowledge gap. History suggests that 30 years or more are needed for a new energy technology to materialise. In order for CCS to have the desired impact on greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the process of materialising CCS must take place within just one decade. Hence, the implication is that broaching CCS into society within this short time span is – if practicable – an unprecedented challenge which requires war-like actions.

► The initial aggregated capacity with CCS by 2020 will affect the actual growth.
► A growth rate of three orders of magnitude is assumed for CCS to become material.
► This requires mobilisation of resources and capacities like in a war-like situation.
► The higher the aggregated capacity by 2020, the “easier” to reach the 2050 target.
► In the context of urgency, time is and becomes a determining factor in this quest.