Pathways towards large-scale implementation of CO2 capture and storage: A case study for the Netherlands

We sketch four possible pathways how carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) (r)evolution may occur in the Netherlands, after which the implications in terms of CO2 stored and avoided, costs and infrastructural requirements are quantified. CCS may play a significant role in decarbonising the Dutch energy and industrial sector, which currently emits nearly 100 Mt CO2/year. We found that 15 Mt CO2 could be avoided annually by 2020, provided some of the larger gas fields that become available the coming decade could be used for CO2 storage. Halfway this century, the mitigation potential of CCS in the power sector, industry and transport fuel production is estimated at maximally 80–110 Mt CO2/year, of which 60–80 Mt CO2/year may be avoided at costs between 15 and 40 €/t CO2, including transport and storage. Avoiding 30–60 Mt CO2/year by means of CCS is considered realistic given the storage potential represented by Dutch gas fields, although it requires planning to assure that domestic storage capacity could be used for CO2 storage. In an aggressive climate policy, avoiding another 50 Mt CO2/year may be possible provided that nearly all capture opportunities that occur are taken. Storing such large amounts of CO2 would only be possible if the Groningen gas field or large reservoirs in the British or Norwegian part of the North Sea will become available.