کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1743661 1522019 2011 13 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Actuarial risk assessment of expected fatalities attributable to carbon capture and storage in 2050
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Actuarial risk assessment of expected fatalities attributable to carbon capture and storage in 2050
چکیده انگلیسی

This study estimates the human cost of failures in the CCS industry in 2050, using the actuarial approach. The range of expected fatalities is assessed integrating all steps of the CCS chain: additional coal production, coal transportation, carbon capture, transport, injection and storage, based on empirical evidence from technical or social analogues. The main finding is that a few hundred fatalities per year should be expected if the technology is used to avoid emitting 3.67 GtCO2 year−1 in 2050 at baseload coal power plants. The large majority of fatalities are attributable to mining and delivering more coal. These risks compare to today's industrial hazards: technical, knowable and occupational dangers for which there are socially acceptable non-zero risk levels. Some contemporary European societies tolerate about one fatality per thousand years around industrial installations. If storage sites perform like that, then expected fatalities per year due to leakage should have a minor contribution in the total expected fatalities per year: less than one. But to statistically validate such a safety level, reliability theory and the technology roadmap suggest that CO2 storage demonstration projects over the next 20 years have to cause exactly zero fatality.

Figure optionsDownload as PowerPoint slideHighlights
► We expect a few hundred fatalities/year could be attributed to CCS in 2050.
► Most of these fatalities would come from mining more coal and delivering it.
► CCS dangers would be mostly technical, knowable and occupational.
► We look at socially acceptable risk levels today for industrial hazards.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control - Volume 5, Issue 5, September 2011, Pages 1346–1358
نویسندگان
, ,