Modeling China's semiconductor industry fluorinated compound emissions and drafting a roadmap for climate protection

Fluorinated compounds (FC) are high-global warming potential (GWP) greenhouse gases used and emitted during the manufacture of silicon semiconductor devices. Following the U.S. EPA's PFC Emissions Vintage Model (PEVM), uncontrolled FC emissions are modeled as proportional to total manufactured layer area (TMLA) of silicon. FC emissions of World Semiconductor Council (WSC) charter member countries (Europe, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and the United States), which voluntarily committed in 1999 to lower FC emissions by 2010 to 10% of baseline year emissions, are modeled for the period 1995-2020. For this same period, emissions from Chinese manufacturers under alternative emission reduction scenarios are modeled. If Chinese manufacturers were to adopt a baseline year of 2005 and a reduction target of 10% below baseline year emissions to be achieved by 2020, emissions would be 3.4 MMTCO2eq, comparable to the similarly projected controlled emissions of an average WSC charter member country (=16.3/5 MMTCO2eq) in 2020. The relative stringency of the alternative reduction scenarios considered for China vary between 50 and 95% reduction compared to business as usual (BAU). This is comparable to the stringency of the WSC charter members' goals for which FC emission reduction technologies are currently available.