Critical technologies for sustainable energy development in Brazil: technological foresight based on scenario modelling

• A novel foresight-based methodology under a low carbon policy context is developed.
• An integrated modelling framework is combined with the foresight method.
• The methodology is applied to Brazil's energy system as a tool to policy-making.
• Results show that coal, natural gas, wind and biomass are important energy sources.
• The methodology may help emerging countries to deal with carbon emission mitigation.

An important task for energy innovation is to identify opportunities using well-established criteria and methods. This study develops a methodology to identify critical technology groups for a sustainable low-carbon energy system and evaluates innovation opportunities within those technology groups in Brazil. This method integrates a mixed-integer optimization model (MESSAGE) with more than 300 mapped processes with the technological foresight exercise, creating a novel approach to the innovative technology selection criteria. Findings for Brazil show that fossil fuels will still play an important role, but renewables, like wind energy and biomass together, might reach more than 30% of total electric generation. Moreover, carbon dioxide emissions reductions may exceed 50% in high tax scenarios. The most relevant innovation potential for Brazil occurs in the biomass, wind sectors and in carbon capture in ethanol production. The study points that long-term future is uncertain and decision to invest in innovation is risky and should account for the stage of technological and knowledge development in different countries. The strategy for innovation might, thus, include international partnerships that join efforts and a national development strategy focussing on Brazilian particularities.