A longitudinal quantitative–qualitative systems approach to the study of transitions toward a low carbon society

• Expounds a ‘systems’ approach for prospective analysis of low carbon transitions.
• Conflation of the Life Cycle Assessment and the Socio-Technical Scenario tools.
• Synthesis corrects tool limitations while adding additional synergies.
• Results in quantitative–qualitative co-analysis of low-carbon transitions pathways.
• Principal benefit is to improve the resolution of transition policy recommendations.

At present, low carbon scenarios have a propensity to focus either upon qualitative, social trend based approaches to developing futures or upon purely technological, engineering based views of an energy ‘system’ within specified emissions constraints.It is now recognised that transition scenarios attempting to examine pathways towards low carbon futures must not only address the social aspects of the system but also, due to their interdependency, the technological aspects. Notwithstanding the limitations of quantitative analysis, its inclusion must be regarded as being an essential component to the study of transition pathways towards a low carbon society, given that the metrics used to indicate the status of the system are quantitative.The objective of this study is to expound a ‘systems’ approach for an integrated quantitative and qualitative analysis of low carbon transition pathways. This is achieved through an interdisciplinary conflation of the Life Cycle Assessment and the Socio-Technical Scenario tools, a strategy that acknowledges the interconnectedness of the societal and the technical aspects of sustainability. An explicit adoption of a backcasting perspective further strengthens the approach with regard to emissions target fulfilment. The integrated methodology, as advanced in this study, synthesises these two tools in a way that helps overcome the limitations of each while also adding synergies that provide additional analytical capacity. The principal benefit of adopting this interdisciplinary ‘systems’ approach to the study of low carbon transitions is to improve the resolution of transition policy recommendations.