Validation of IRI-2012 TEC model over Ethiopia during solar minimum (2009) and solar maximum (2013) phases

• The IRI-2012 model generally overestimates the vTEC over Ethiopian regions.
• The model better predicts the vTEC during the low than high solar activity phase.
• The model does not respond to magnetic storm effects.

This paper investigates the capacity of the latest version of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2012) model in predicting the vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC) over Ethiopian regions during solar minimum (2009) and solar maximum (2013) phases. This has been carried out by comparing the IRI-2012 modeled and experimental vTEC inferred from eight ground based dual frequency GPS (Global Positioning System) receivers installed recently at different regions of the country. In this work, the diurnal, monthly and seasonal variation in the measured vTEC have been analyzed and compared with the IRI-2012 modeled vTEC. During the solar minimum phase, the lowest and highest diurnal peak of the experimental vTEC are observed in July and October, respectively. In general, the diurnal variability of vTEC has shown minimum values around 0300 UT (0600 LT) and maximum values between around 1000 and 1300 UT (1300 and 1600 LT) during both solar activity phases. Moreover, the maximum and minimum monthly and seasonal mean hourly vTEC values are observed in October and July and in the March equinox and June solstice, respectively. It is also shown that the IRI-2012-model better predicts the diurnal vTEC in the time interval of about 0000–0300 UT (0300–0600 LT) during the solar minimum phase. However, the model generally overestimates the diurnal vTEC except in the time interval of about 0900–1500 UT (1200–1800 LT) during the solar maximum phase. The overall result of this work shows that the diurnal vTEC prediction performance of the model is generally better during the solar minimum phase than during solar maximum phase. Regarding the monthly and seasonal prediction capacity of the model, there is a good agreement between the modeled and measured monthly and seasonal mean hourly vTEC values in January and December solstice, respectively. Another result of the work depicts that unlike the GPS–TEC the IRI-2012 TEC does not respond to the effect resulted from geomagnetic storms.