کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
1765106 | 1020084 | 2012 | 15 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Quantifying the role of solar radiative forcing over the 20th century
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
علوم زمین و سیارات
علوم فضا و نجوم
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چکیده انگلیسی
The 20th century temperature anomaly record is reproduced using an energy balance model, with a diffusive deep ocean. The model takes into account all the standard radiative forcings, and in addition the possibility of a non-thermal solar component. The model is parameterized and then optimized to produce the most likely values for the climate parameters and radiative forcings which reproduce the 20th century global warming. We find that the best fit is obtained with a negligible net feedback. We also show that a non-thermal solar component is necessarily present, indicating that the total solar contribution to the 20th century global warming, of ÎTsolar = 0.27 ± 0.07 °C, is much larger than can be expected from variation in the total solar irradiance alone. However, we also find that the largest contribution to the 20th century warming comes from anthropogenic sources, with ÎTman = 0.42 ± 0.11 °C.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Advances in Space Research - Volume 50, Issue 6, 15 September 2012, Pages 762-776
Journal: Advances in Space Research - Volume 50, Issue 6, 15 September 2012, Pages 762-776
نویسندگان
Shlomi Ziskin, Nir J. Shaviv,