Vertical motions in Thailand after the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman Earthquake from GPS observations and its geophysical modelling

Following previous findings from ongoing GPS research in Thailand since 2004 we continue to exploit the GPS technique to monitor and model land motions induced by the Sumatra–Andaman Earthquake. Our latest results show that up to the end of 2010, Thailand has been co-seismically displaced and is subsequently undergoing a post-seismic horizontal deformation with total displacements (co-seismic plus post-seismic) ranging from 10.5 to 74.7 cm. We observed the largest horizontal displacements in the southern part of Thailand and moderate and small displacements in the central and northern parts. In addition to horizontal displacements throughout Thailand, continuous GPS measurements show that large parts of Thailand are subsiding at rates up to 1 cm/yr. It is the first time that such vertical post-seismic deformations at large distances (650–1500 km away from the Earthquake’s epicentre) have been recorded. We have investigated the physical processes leading to the observed subsidence. While after-slip on the subduction interface induces negligible or even slightly positive vertical motions, relaxation in the asthenosphere is associated with a sizable subsidence. Predictions from a 3D finite element model feature an asthenosphere with an effective viscosity of the order of 3 * 1018 Pas, fit the horizontal post-seismic data and the observed subsidence well. This model is then used to predict the subsidence over the whole seismic cycle. The subsidence should go on with a diminishing rate through the next two decades and its final magnitude should not exceed 10 cm in the Bangkok area.The post-seismic subsidence makes it difficult to identify other geophysical signals, particularly sea level rise, when observed from tide gauge data and thus there is a need for reliable estimation of subsidence velocities. This phenomenon may also worsen coastal erosion and flooding from sea water and so cause a considerable impact on the socio-economic development of coastal and low-lying areas, especially in the greater Bangkok area.