Auroral radio absorption: The prediction question

The paper summarises key facts and figures about the phenomenon of auroral radio absorption which are relevant to the problem of predicting its occurrence and intensity. The regions most affected are well known in terms of magnetic latitude (or L-value) and local time. The greater difficulty comes from its highly variable character. Exact predictions are never likely to be possible, but statistical forecasts, which would give the likelihood that some critical level will be reached or exceeded, may well be possible. At the present time it is suggested that they might be based on magnetic indices, since their prediction is already well established. Direct measurements of the solar wind, now available in real time, offer another possibility, perhaps to be considered in parallel. The substorm character of the absorption might also be applied, using the observed duration of absorption events and their known dynamics over the Earth's surface, as an early warning. A comprehensive reference list is included.