کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1769489 1020276 2006 4 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
On the possibility of getting economically sound forecasts of rare space weather events
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات علوم فضا و نجوم
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
On the possibility of getting economically sound forecasts of rare space weather events
چکیده انگلیسی

There is a problem of setting criteria of space weather forecast quality that allows estimation of the economic effectiveness of forecasts in comparison with other methods for real users. The overwhelming majority of such users (airlines, power lines, pipelines, space exploration, navigation, ground-induced currents, medical services, etc.), are primarily interested in large space weather disturbances that affect the operation of their systems. But powerful disturbances happen rather seldom and so the traditional criteria of quality estimation give very little useful information for an estimate of economic effectiveness of the forecast. This work proposes a specially constructed value “A” for every customer (task) and for each method (or kind) of the forecast, which allows the estimation of the comparative economic effectiveness. Special attention is paid to the statistical significance in reference to the cyclic nature of the solar activity, and there are also indicated some numeral limits, which have to be considered during such a check.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Advances in Space Research - Volume 37, Issue 6, 2006, Pages 1247–1250
نویسندگان
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