The response of the distributions of Asian buffalo breeds in China to climate change over the past 50 years

• We examined whether the changes in distribution of buffalo breeds can be attributed to climate change in China.
• Drive by climate change, predicted the distributions of buffalo breeds appeared changed.
• Observed the distributions of very few buffalo breeds over the past 50 years have changed.
• The consistency of observed and predicted changes in distribution of some buffalo breeds is higher.
• The changes in distribution of very few buffalo breed can be attributed to climate change.

The effects of prior climate change on the distribution of buffalo breeds remain uncertain. We measured the changes in distribution of 29 buffalo breeds over the past 50 years, and examined whether these changes can be attributed to climate change in China. Long-term records of buffalo breed distributions, grey relational analysis, the fuzzy sets classification techniques and attribution methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of some buffalo breeds have mainly shifted northward or eastward or southward, and most of the changes were related to the thermal index. Drive by climatic factors over the past years, the distribution boundaries and distribution centers of certain buffalo breeds mainly shifted northward, eastward or southward with fluctuation. The observed and predicted changes in distribution were highly consistent for some buffalo breeds. The changes in the northern boundary of 2 buffalo breeds, the change in the eastern boundary of distribution of 1 breed, and the change in the distribution center latitude coordinate of 1 breed can be attributed to climate change.