The role of movement restrictions and pre-emptive destruction in the emergency control strategy against CSF outbreaks in domestic pigs

Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks in domestic pig herds lead to the implementation of standard control measures according to legislative regulations. Ideal outbreak control entails the swift and efficient culling of all pigs on premises detected positive for CSF virus. Often all pig holdings around the detected cases are pre-emptively destroyed to exclude transmission into the neighbourhood. In addition to these measures, zones are defined in which surveillance and protection measures are intensified to prevent further distant disease spread. In particular, all movements are prohibited within standstill areas. Standstill also excludes the transport of fattened pigs to slaughter.Historical outbreaks provide evidence of the success of this control strategy. However, the extent to which the individual strategy elements contribute to this success is unknown. Therefore, we applied a spatially and temporally explicit epidemic model to the problem. Its rule-based formulation is tailored to a one-by-one model implementation of existing control concepts. Using a comparative model analysis the individual contributions of single measures to overall control success were revealed.From the results of the model we concluded that movement restrictions had the dominant impact on strategy performance suggesting a reversal of the current conceptual thinking. Additional measures such as pre-emptive culling only became relevant under imperfect compliance with movement restrictions.The importance of movement restrictions for the overall control success illustrates the need for explicit consideration of this measure when contingency strategies are being amended (e.g. emergency vaccination) and associated risks assessed.