A PathWayDiagram for introduction and prevention of Avian Influenza: Application to the Dutch poultry sector

The introduction of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) viruses is a continuing threat to the poultry sector. In times of increased risk of introduction (e.g. because of HPAI outbreaks in neighbouring countries or trade partners), decision-makers face the question whether they should intensify current preventive measures or establish new ones. To support this, a qualitative decision tool in the form of a PathWayDiagram (PWD) is presented. The PWD includes theoretically possible pathways for introduction of HPAI in the domestic commercial poultry population together with corresponding preventive measures. Hence, the PWD is a systematic checklist focused on (1) possibilities of (increased risk of) introduction and (2) possible preventive measures. It can be used in a high-alert situation, when decision-makers have to act in a relatively short time to decide on and implement a coherent set of preventive measures covering the high-risk pathways involved.