Simulating the BSE epidemic and multiplication factor in dairy herds in Japan

With the objective of evaluating the effectiveness of an administrative guidance on the use of ruminant meat-and-bone meal in ruminant feed, effective from April 1996 to September 2001, we developed a model to simulate the evolution of the BSE epidemic and to estimate the BSE multiplication factor (K) in the Japanese dairy population. The output that provided the best fit to the number of BSE cases both observed and predicted to date suggest that the probability that bovine MBM was fed back to cattle was 14.2–75.2% and 0.129–0.570% during the periods from 1992 to April 1996 and from April 1996 to October 2001, respectively. Given these estimates, the value of K would have peaked in 1995 at 40–48 and then declined to 0.32–0.67 between 1997 and 2001. These results suggest that the administrative guidance was effective in reducing the amount of MBM fed to cattle by a factor of 104–141 and was perhaps enough to drive the epidemic towards extinction.