کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
2453611 1554230 2006 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in Pakistan estimated using imperfect data
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک علوم دامی و جانورشناسی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in Pakistan estimated using imperfect data
چکیده انگلیسی
We estimated the spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Pakistan; we used a probability co-kriging model and the number of FMD outbreaks reported between 1996 and 2000 by Pakistan to the Office International des Epizooties. We used a k-Bessel model and small-ruminant and human densities as surrogate covariates for the population at risk and for livestock markets and movements, respectively. Compared to no or only one covariate, the co-kriging model with both densities provided the best fit to independently obtained data on the spatial distribution of virus isolations (P = 0.57). The estimated probability of an FMD outbreak per 25 km2 cell ranged from 0.017 to 0.812, with the maximum relative probability of 47.8 (0.812/0.017). Areas with the highest relative probability of having an FMD outbreak were located in the Punjab region; this is a major animal-production area located along a traditional international animal-trade route.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Preventive Veterinary Medicine - Volume 76, Issues 3–4, 17 October 2006, Pages 280-289
نویسندگان
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