Predicted Financial Performance of Three Beef Cow Calving Seasons in South Texas

Future financial performance was predicted for cow herds in dual, spring, and fall calving season regimens using a system dynamic model parameterized with historic production and financial data from King Ranch and future cattle prices estimated by CattleFax. Results are reported on a 1,000 cows/herd basis for predicted average annual pretax accrual adjusted net income, predicted average annual cost-based investment in breeding livestock, and predicted average annual return on investment on cost-based breeding livestock. The predicted results of the simulations indicated that over the next 10 yr, the fall calving season would generate more net income than either the dual or spring calving season on the King Ranch. However, a dual calving season would have less invested in breeding livestock and a greater return on breeding livestock than either the spring or fall calving seasons. Based on market risk, variation in precipitation, investment in breeding livestock, and return on breeding livestock, having a dual calving season is predicted to be a superior management strategy compared with spring- or fall-only calving seasons for the King Ranch from 2007 to 2016.