Multi-agent simulation of the dynamic evolutionary process in Chinese urban housing market based on the GIS: The case of Beijing

• An analytical framework for housing market transaction process is provided.
• Housing market with new and existing homes is modeled using multi-agent approach.
• GIS-based simulation for urban housing market evolution is implemented in Beijing.

In order to analyze the dynamic evolutionary process of Chinese emerging housing market, the paper defines the behavioral functions of household agents in terms of demand generation, information search and price negotiation, and incorporates multi-agent technique and geographic information system to conduct a series of simulation studies on Beijing housing market. By setting different market scenarios, the impacts of new housing supply and information level on Beijing housing market are addressed. The findings show that, Beijing housing market is characterized by the prominent urban expansion with the formation of consolidated residential zones outside the 5th ring road; the growth in new housing supply can reduce the buyer search duration significantly, and lead the buyer search flow to the new housing market; higher information level can increase the sales of resale housing market, but inhibit the sales and time on market for new-built houses to some extent.