Probabilistic modelling of European consumer exposure to cosmetic products

In this study, we describe the statistical analysis of the usage profile of the European population to seven cosmetic products. The aim of the study was to construct a reliable model of exposure of the European population from use of the selected products: body lotion, shampoo, deodorant spray, deodorant non-spray, facial moisturiser, lipstick and toothpaste.The first step in this process was to gather reliable data on consumer usage patterns of the products. These data were sourced from a combination of market information databases and a controlled product use study by the trade association Colipa. The market information study contained a large number of subjects, in total 44,100 households and 18,057 habitual users (males and females) of the studied products, in five European countries.The data sets were then combined to generate a realistic distribution of frequency of use of each product, combined with distribution of the amount of product used at each occasion using the CREMe software. A Monte Carlo method was used to combine the data sets. This resulted in a new model of European exposure to cosmetic products being constructed.