Clinical and Echocardiographic Markers of Mortality Risk in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is independently associated with increases in cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Although cardiovascular co-morbidities predict stroke risk in AF, their relation with mortality has not been well described. To identify clinical and echocardiographic markers of mortality in patients with AF, 524 patients with AF underwent transesophageal echocardiography from August 2000 to March 2005. Clinical risk factors for systemic thromboembolism were determined for each patient. A CHADS2 (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age >75 years, diabetes, and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack) score ranging from 0 to 6 was calculated for each patient. Transesophageal echocardiographic reports were reviewed for the presence of left atrial spontaneous echocardiographic contrast, left atrial thrombus, the left ventricular ejection fraction, aortic arch atheroma, and the presence and severity of mitral regurgitation. Mortality data were obtained from the Social Security Death Master File. Univariate and multivariate models were structured to assess which variables predicted mortality. In a multivariate model, a history of heart failure, age >75 years, the absence of systemic anticoagulation with warfarin, the presence of left atrial spontaneous echocardiographic contrast, and greater than moderate mitral regurgitation were independent predictors of mortality. Increasing CHADS2 score was also an independent predictor of mortality. A CHADS2 score of 5 or 6 was associated with a >50-fold increase in mortality compared with patients with CHADS2 scores of 0. In conclusion, a history of heart failure, age ≥75 years, the absence of chronic oral anticoagulation, a CHADS2 score >0, and greater than moderate mitral regurgitation are independent predictors of mortality in patients with AF.