Probabilistic leak-before-break analysis with correlated input parameters

The paper presents a probabilistic methodology considering the correlations between the input variables for the analysis of leak-before-break (LBB) behavior of a pressure tube. A computer program based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation with Nataf transformation has been developed to allow the proposed methodology to calculate both the time from the first leakage to unstable fracture and the time from leakage detection to unstable fracture. The results show that the correlation of the crack growth rates between different cracks has the most significant impact on the LBB behavior of the pressure tube. The impact of the parameters correlation on LBB behavior increases with the crack numbers. If the correlations between different parameters for an individual crack are not considered, the predicted results are nonconservative when the cumulative probability is below 50% and conservative when it is above 50%.

► The correlation of crack growth has the most significant impact on LBB behavior.
► The correlation impact increases with the correlation coefficients.
► The correlation impact increases with the number of cracks.
► Independent assumption may lead to nonconservative result.