Potential steam generator tube rupture in the presence of severe accident thermal challenge and tube flaws due to foreign object wear

This study develops a methodology to assess the probability for the degraded PWR steam generator to rupture first in the reactor coolant pressure boundary, under severe accident conditions with counter-current natural circulating high temperature gas in the hot leg and SG tubes. The considered SG tube flaws are caused by foreign object wear, which in recent years has emerged as a major inservice degradation mechanism for the new generation tubing materials. The first step develops the statistical distributions for the flaw frequency, size, and the flaw location with respect to the tube length and the tube's tubesheet position, based on data of hundreds of flaws reported in numerous SG inservice inspection reports. The next step performs thermal-hydraulic analysis using the MELCOR code and recent CFD findings to predict the thermal challenge to the degraded tubes and the tube-to-tube difference in thermal response at the SG entrance. The final step applies the creep rupture models in the Monte Carlo random walk to test the potential for the degraded SG to rupture before the surge line. The mean and range of the SG tube rupture probability can be applied to estimate large early release frequency in probabilistic safety assessment.