The estimation of lifetime distribution of Alloy 800 steam generator tubing

Alloy 800 has been used for steam generator (SG) tubing for more than 30 years, primarily in CANDU reactors worldwide and in reactors in Germany. Extensive laboratory testing and in-service experience suggest that the Alloy 800 tubing has excellent resistance to corrosion-related degradation under appropriate operating conditions. In planning refurbishment of nuclear plants stations, a key concern is the longevity of existing SGs up to the 60-year lifetime of the refurbished plant. The paper reviews an existing methodology based on the concept of the improvement factor, and refines its estimation based on data specific to CANDU operating conditions. The paper presents a more advanced Bayesian probabilistic approach to estimate the degradation free lifetime distribution of Alloy 800 tubing, which is used to quantify the probability of degradation during the service life and to evaluate the impact of potential occurrences of degradation on reliability of SG tubing.