Modeling fMRI data generated by overlapping cognitive processes with unknown onsets using Hidden Process Models

We present a new method for modeling fMRI time series data called Hidden Process Models (HPMs). Like several earlier models for fMRI analysis, Hidden Process Models assume that the observed data is generated by a sequence of underlying mental processes that may be triggered by stimuli. HPMs go beyond these earlier models by allowing for processes whose timing may be unknown, and that might not be directly tied to specific stimuli. HPMs provide a principled, probabilistic framework for simultaneously learning the contribution of each process to the observed data, as well as the timing and identities of each instantiated process. They also provide a framework for evaluating and selecting among competing models that assume different numbers and types of underlying mental processes. We describe the HPM framework and its learning and inference algorithms, and present experimental results demonstrating its use on simulated and real fMRI data. Our experiments compare several models of the data using cross-validated data log-likelihood in an fMRI study involving overlapping mental processes whose timings are not fully known.