Road safety forecasting and ex-ante evaluation of policy in the Netherlands

• Paper illustrates the use of road safety forecasts and ex-ante evaluation in policy making.
• Forecasts are based on a stratified approach and corrected for changes in policy.
• Additional policy is evaluated ex-ante, multiplying effectiveness, target group and penetration.

Road safety forecasting and ex-ante evaluation of road safety policy are useful tools in policy making. This paper illustrates the use of these instruments in policy making in the Netherlands. As part of an interim evaluation of achieving Dutch road safety targets, the numbers of fatalities and serious road injuries were estimated for 2020. From these forecasts, it was concluded that the target for serious road injuries most probably would not be met without additional policy measures. Therefore, the Minister of Infrastructure and the Environment in the Netherlands decided to take additional measures. From an ex-ante evaluation of these measures, it was concluded that also with these additional measures the target for the number of serious road injuries in 2020 will most probably not be met.