Evaluation of mortality following severe burns injury in Hungary: External validation of a prediction model developed on Belgian burn data

PurposeTo evaluate mortality in a group of Hungarian burn patients and, as such, to perform an external validation of a prediction model developed on Belgian burn data by which the mortality appraisal was executed.Basic proceduresIn a historical cohort we analysed all burn patients admitted between 1998 and 2006 to the Debrecen University Hospital (n = 2326). The prediction model, based on three criteria (age, burned surface area (BSA) and inhalation injury) was also used to evaluate several subpopulations based on gender and age.Main findingsMean age was 35.3 years, mean BSA was 10.7%, 54% of the population was male, inhalation injury was rare (n = 7; 0.3%) and overall mortality was 1.4% (1.6% male, 1.1% female). The men were younger and more severely burned, which was significant in every age group above 2 years. The model gave an accurate prediction of mortality, with a small overestimation in the lower risk categories. The receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.94 (95% confidence interval: 0.89–0.98).ConclusionOverall burn mortality in Hungary was low. The mortality prediction model demonstrated a high discriminative value. As such, this model is a helpful tool for outcome prediction and risk stratification for research purposes in burn patients.