کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
310734 533357 2014 14 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Multivariate exposure modeling of accident risk: Insights from Pay-as-you-drive insurance data
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدلسازی مواجهه چند متغیره خطر تصادف: اطلاعات از اطلاعات بیمه پرداخت به عنوان شما
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی عمران و سازه
چکیده انگلیسی


• We compute differentiated mileage exposure metrics from 1600 vehicles.
• Metrics are used in multivariate logistic regression to predict accident involvement.
• After various transformations, a Nagelkerke R2 goodness-of-fit of 0.646 is achieved.
• Multivariate mileage–risk relationship modeling offers novel insights.
• PAYD-insurance data are an important opportunity for transportation research.

The increasing adoption of in-vehicle data recorders (IVDR) for commercial purposes such as Pay-as-you-drive (PAYD) insurance is generating new opportunities for transportation researchers. An important yet currently underrepresented theme of IVDR-based studies is the relationship between the risk of accident involvement and exposure variables that differentiate various driving conditions. Using an extensive commercial data set, we develop a methodology for the extraction of exposure metrics from location trajectories and estimate a range of multivariate logistic regression models in a case-control study design. We achieve high model fit (Nagelkerke’s R2 0.646, Hosmer–Lemeshow significance 0.848) and gain insights into the non-linear relationship between mileage and accident risk. We validate our results with official accident statistics and outline further research opportunities. We hope this work provides a blueprint supporting a standardized conceptualization of exposure to accident risk in the transportation research community that improves the comparability of future studies on the subject.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice - Volume 61, March 2014, Pages 27–40
نویسندگان
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